Posted by
Part-Time Pundit on Saturday, January 06, 2007 7:10:05 PM
Drudge Report is splashing the news that the
Sunday Times of London
plans on reporting that Israel is planning a nuclear strike against
Iran to head off Iran's nuclear ambitions. According to Drudge:
Israel has drawn up secret plans to destroy Iran's uranium enrichment
facilities with tactical nuclear weapons, the SUNDAY TIMES of London is
planning to report, British media sources tell DRUDGE...
At
first glance, the entire story smells of a fabrication. The obvious
reason being that if Israel had secret plans to nuke Iran, they likely
wouldn't have been leaked. If they did get leaked, the police better
start dredging the Sea of Galilee for the bodies of those involved.
More importantly this leak gives huge benefits to Iran.
Israel
is not stupid. A tactical nuclear weapon would likely do very little
for a protected underground bunker. It is possible that either Drudge
or the London Times doesn't know precisely what a tactical nuclear
weapon is. However, the fact remains in order to really do damage to
the facility an ICBM (a strategic nuclear weapons) would need to be
used. The momentum of a missile coming down from low earth orbit would
be necessary to burrow deep enough to do the damage desired. There is
indication that even then,
the strike might not be successful.
One
simulation indicated it would require 400 or so missiles to do the job.
At best, entrances and exits from the underground facility could be
collapses and that would certainly delay the program. The radiation
from the strikes would need to dissipate and the tunnels would have to
be rebuilt. It is possible such a strike could be times when Iran's
nuclear weapons were being brought above ground, but that would be
extremely difficult to pull off.
Iran's move to build its
nuclear program underground was brilliant. They learned the lessons of
Iraq in 1981. However, the key defense of the move is also its biggest
weakness. Namely, any nuclear weapon developed underground could not be
used until it is brought above ground at already known locations. A
nuclear strike at those locations would keep the weapons out of Iranian
hands underneath irradiated soil. That move, however, is only a
temporary solution.
It is likely that both Israel and the US
have drawn up simulations and plans but every indication is that they
are a last resort. The other fact is that these plans aren't precisely
secret, at least in general. Leaking the plans now, just shortly after
sanctions have been levied against Iran indicate that the plans were
likely not coming from Israel.
Iran's general tactic has been to
run the clock and delay as much as possible. This indicates that they
are likely very close to being finished making nuclear weapons which
would change the dynamics of diplomacy greatly. They have every
incentive to keep stalling until they've met that landmark.
This
plan, being leaked now in the way it was only gives more cover to Iran.
The international community and human rights groups will likely jump
all over Israel and demand investigations and action. Despite basically
looking the other way of actual genocide going on in Darfur, they'll
jump to action on the rumor of a hypothetical "genocide." We'll skip
past the international community's non-response over Iran's very public
desire to commit genocide against Israel.
This leaking has every
indication that it was done by Iran, or a supporter or Iran, to give
more cover and time. While international eyes are peering at Israel,
Iran's program will continue undeterred.
John Bambenek is the Assistant Politics Editor for BC Magazine and is an academic professional for the University of Illinois. He is a syndicated columnist who blogs at Part-Time Pundit and the executive director of The Tumaini Foundation which helps AIDS orphans and other children in Tanzania to get an education.
He is the current owner of BlogSoldiers, a blog-only traffic exchange.